为什么备战对和平很重要

An end to the war in Ukraine is not yet in sight and experts worldwide are cautious with any forecasts, partly 因为 Russia's strategy in the first twelve months of the war raised many questions and continues to do so today. For example, why has it not yet made military use of its airspace superiority? Is it the inability to act as a unit or are there other considerations behind it? “如果你回顾一下过去，你会感到非常惊讶. 空气 power was already very important in the Second World War, for example in Normandy. 伊拉克战争也是如此, when the USA gained airspace control within a few hours and subsequently won all of the attacks,弗雷德里克·哈塞尔解释道. What is already apparent is that Russia will be a different enemy in the future for which the West must prepare: "Before the Cold War, 俄罗斯是一个超级大国. 冷战结束后, 俄罗斯非常强大, 至少是区域性的, and it also had an enormous arsenal of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Now Russia is becoming a rogue state with WMD and cyber capabilities."

究竟是俄罗斯还是乌克兰赢得这场战争，还要看情况, 无论如何, 在为其定义的参数上. "Russia is already said to be selling maps with new national borders. This could indicate that Vladimir Putin is concerned about the currently occupied territories." Experts like Fredrik Hassel believe that a conquest of the entirety of Ukraine is unrealistic. 然而, 永久占领一块领土是可以想象的, 尽管代价很高, 也就是大量的受害者. Only time will tell whether Ukraine can counter Russia in the long run and the backing of international supporters will continue to be crucial for Ukraine.

战争能加强北约和欧盟吗?

西方对俄罗斯的侵略战争感到惊讶. “This is despite the fact that Eastern European countries had warned of Putin's brutality and ruthlessness. Countries like Germany, 法国, Sweden, Denmark and even Spain ignored these signals. They thought that it would be possible to integrate Russia into our Western social model until the very end,哈塞尔解释道。. Russia's annexation of Crimea already called into question the sovereignty and territorial integrity of states in 2014. 随着2022年冲突的升级, there are now fears that similar conflicts could arise in other parts of Europe or the world if the international community is unable to protect states accordingly and send a clear signal to aggressors.

只有团结起来，美国才能, 北约和 the EU have been able to increase the pressure on Russia in recent months. 因此，联盟的重要性与日俱增. The war has resulted in hitherto non-existent military cooperation on an international level, 加强北约. 芬兰 and Sweden have both applied to join the military alliance and Germany has massively increased its arms budget. "With 芬兰 as a direct neighbour and Sweden as an ideal logistics base, there are brand new opportunities for NATO to be able to actually protect and defend the Baltic States in a conventional sense." This is a development that Vladimir Putin must not have anticipated.

没有欧盟的武器和弹药供应, 美国和北约成员国, 今天乌克兰的情况可能会有所不同. 这是悲哀的，但却是真实的. 显然, it took a war to wake Europe up and strengthen the international community,弗雷德里克·哈塞尔说, 十大正规博彩网站评级高级公共事务顾问. The EU is once again realising how important common foreign policy is and that it cannot afford to neglect defence and armament policy. Members of the European Parliament have called on the EU to use provisions of the EU Treaty that allow the European Council to make certain decisions without military consequences by qualified majority rather than unanimously, 特别是有关制裁和人权的决定. 此外, EU institutions have been invited to suggest proposals on how to achieve and ensure the EU's own permanent seat in all multilateral fora, 包括联合国安理会.

没有武器，防御是行不通的

NATO in particular faces the complex task of persuading its members to increase their defence budgets over the coming years in order to strengthen their military capabilities. This is the only way to respond to threats and ensure credible deterrence. 事实上, 通过声明, NATO member states must be able to defend not only themselves but also others. 实现这一目标可能是一个挑战, 争论说, 因为, 毕竟, the focus so far has been more on research and development: "We are currently seeing bottlenecks in some areas. The EU and NATO will have to discuss how to ensure production capability in the future, 在和平时期, in order to be prepared for any conflicts in the truest sense of the word."

他说，系统兼容性也必须得到鼓励. Ukraine demonstrates this well as weapons and ammunition come from a wide variety of countries and from different manufacturers. "New types of cooperation that create links between countries and sectors are the future. 我相信，这将使我们更加强大.在十大正规博彩网站评级, the versatility of systems and the ability to continuously develop and adapt systems have always been important pillars in development. 尽管战争惨烈, Fredrik Hassel sees increasing dialogue and exchange within the industry as a positive development.

速度在每一次冲突中都起着重要作用. This takes on a different perspective in the case of Ukraine 因为 the weapon systems supplied are partly unknown to the Ukrainians and there is no time for extensive training and education. "I have great respect and appreciation for the fighters in Ukraine. They’re managing to use and maintain weapons – some of which are new – efficiently and they’re making a great impact with clever logistics. Rarely has a people shown so much determination to defend themselves and their country, 甚至不回避残酷的攻击."

无人驾驶飞机和反坦克武器取得成功

乌克兰的战斗主要是用常规武器进行的, 但网络攻击也时有发生. For the first time, unmanned vehicles and drones are being used to great success and on both sides. Cheap mini-drones have also become an important weapon in the war, despite their low strike power.

反坦克武器, especially the Saab model NLAW (Next Generation Light Anti-Tank Weapon), 在乌克兰战争中特别有效. 英国军队, 是哪个国家向乌克兰提供了数千枚这样的武器, 已经为NLAWs下了一个新的大订单. 此外, the US government has announced its intention to deliver the GLSDB (Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb) to Ukraine. This system has been in development since 2014 and Saab is working on it together with Boeing. 该系统可在所有天气条件下部署. 弹头有很小的, foldable wings that allow it to fly more than 100 kilometres after being launched from an aircraft (up to 150 kilometres from the ground) and hit targets as small as one metre in diameter. The system could enable Ukraine to hit valuable military targets that were previously out of reach and help Ukraine continue its counter-attacks by disrupting Russian areas of retreat.

根据英国情报机构, Saab weapons have been effective in the fight against Russia so far. Asked about this at the 21st Berlin 安全 Conference in late 2022, 十大正规博彩网站评级首席执行官迈克尔•约翰逊表示:“听到这个消息我并不感到惊讶. 当然，使用我们的武器是可悲的. 但如果有必要的话, 然后，它们也必须是有效的，并服务于它们的目的. 这是我们的要求."

乌克兰是一个榜样?

自从乌克兰战争爆发以来, 媒体对世界上其他动乱地区保持沉默, 比如中国大陆和台湾之间不断发酵的冲突, 或者中东. 然而，乌克兰在很多方面都可以成为榜样. Ukraine may be able to influence parties to the conflict and supporters. “例如, the USA expects support from Europe for its assistance in Ukraine, 与中国的关系是否应该升级,哈塞尔解释道.

但他警告不要过多地比较这些冲突, 因为: “Fighting Russia in Ukraine is very different from fighting China. 而在乌克兰，重点是地面作战, 中国大陆和台湾之间的冲突可能升级, 重点将更多地放在空军和海军上. 此外, China is a high-tech state and is possibly superior to the West in some areas when it comes to technology." Rather, the strength of the international community should be used to send a clear signal to China. “对台湾, 无论如何, the resistance of the Ukrainian people could serve as a model to become even more self-confident and rely even more greatly than before on its allies to deter China." Hassel does not want to rely on whether China will also learn its lessons from the war and realise that it is not so easy to take over a country through military force, 即使它看起来更强大.

和平不是免费的

The current conflict has made us aware that peace cannot be taken for granted and states must prepare for possible war so that they are able to defend themselves. The Ukraine war demonstrates that weak military defence provides an incentive for aggressors. 更小更弱的国家, it is particularly important that they have sufficient defence capability to be able to protect themselves against possible attacks. “东欧国家正在清除所有苏联库存, which they will have to replace with modern Western weapons in the coming years. And Russia will also realise that it no longer has its old strength, 在第二次世界大战中战胜纳粹. It will change its way of waging war and the West must also prepare for this,弗雷德里克·哈塞尔总结道, 十大正规博彩网站评级高级公共事务顾问.

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